Refinance gap calculator
The refinance gap is the balloon you owe minus the largest new loan you can get. In the illustration below, a $2,000,000 loan written at 4.00% leaves a $1,575,679 balloon after 10 years; at 6.50% today, $140,000 of NOI supports only $1,476,634 at a 1.25x minimum. The gap is $99,045, before closing costs. Run your own loan below.
Updated . Runs in your browser; nothing you type is sent anywhere unless you choose to request a quote.
Refinance gap
$99,045
–
Ways to close it
Estimate from your inputs, not a quote.
Talk to us about this refinanceYour numbers stay in this browser until you send the request. Janover Capital LLC arranges financing; it is not a lender.
Why gaps appear even on healthy buildings
A loan written when rates were low was sized on a low payment. At maturity the same NOI is tested at today's rate, so the coverage test produces a smaller loan even if the property is full and its value held. The balloon is due regardless: Whatever principal remains on the maturity date is due in full1. In the illustration, the old loan repaid $424,321 over ten years, but the new rate costs far more loan than that.
How big the maturity wall is
- Commercial and multifamily mortgages maturing in 2026: $875 billion, 17% of $5.0 trillion outstanding2.
- Biggest single holder coming due: $396 billion of bank and thrift loans (21% of their book)2 (every holder).
- Scheduled for 2027: $652 billion2.
- CMBS loans maturing in 2027 alone (Trepp): $61.1 billion3.
Reading the "ways to close it" table
- Cash paydown is the gap itself: the simplest fix, if you have the equity.
- NOI needed is the income at which the binding test would cover the balloon. It is the target for a bridge loan business plan.
- Rate needed applies when DSCR binds: the rate at which the full balloon fits. If it is far below today's rate, a rate buy-down will not close the gap.
- Subordinate capital (a mezzanine loan or preferred equity) can fill the gap if the senior lender allows it; price the blend with the blended rate calculator.
Edge cases
- A negative gap means the new loan covers the balloon with room left over: that surplus is potential cash-out (see the cash-out calculator).
- Prepaying early to beat a rate rise usually triggers the old loan's premium. Add it to the payoff using the prepayment calculator.
- Value fell. If LTV binds, more NOI does not help until the value recovers; the fix is equity or a lender with a higher LTV.
Method and formula
balloon = balance after (term - IO months) payments on the original schedule new loan = min(value x LTV, NOI / (DSCR x loan constant), NOI / debt yield) gap = balloon + closing costs - new loan NOI needed (DSCR binds) = (balloon + costs) x DSCR x loan constant
Questions people ask
What can I do if my commercial loan matures and I cannot refinance the full balance?
Bring cash to pay the balance down, find a lender with looser limits (a longer amortization, interest only, or a higher LTV), add a mezzanine loan or preferred equity to fill the gap, take a bridge loan to buy time while NOI grows, or negotiate an extension with the current lender. Each has a cost; the calculator shows the size of the problem first.
Why did my loan amount shrink if the property is doing fine?
Usually because rates rose. The same NOI covers less loan at a higher rate, so the DSCR test produces a smaller loan even when the building is full and the value held up.
When should I start a refinance before maturity?
Well before it. Permanent lenders need time for an appraisal, third-party reports and underwriting, and agency or CMBS loans often carry prepayment terms that fall away only near maturity. Check your note’s open period so the new loan can close without a premium.
Related tools and guides
Sources
- Freddie Mac Multifamily Note, Fixed Rate Yield Maintenance Only (Revised 5-5-2017), as filed with the SEC (Inland Residential Properties Trust, Ex. 10.41), as of July 27, 2017
- MBA, 2025 Commercial Real Estate Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes (NewsLink, February 9, 2026), as of December 31, 2025
- Trepp, The Q3 2026 Quarterly Data Review (Oct 26, 2026), as of October 26, 2026
- CRED iQ, CRE Loan Spreads Tighten Across Property Types (Apr 17, 2026), as of March 31, 2026
- Northmarq, Rates & Spreads (Life Co, Multifamily and Commercial), as of October 22, 2026
- KKR Real Estate Finance Trust 10-Q, Q3 2026, as of September 30, 2026
- Granite Point Mortgage Trust 10-Q, Q2 2026, as of June 30, 2026
- Blackstone Mortgage Trust 10-Q, Q3 2026, as of September 30, 2026
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily par yield curve rates, as of October 30, 2026
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as of October 30, 2026
How we check figures: methodology and editorial policy.
Get financing for this deal
Send the property and the loan once. A person at Janover Capital LLC reads it, tells you which programs fit and replies, usually within one business day.